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Thursday, March 11, 2010

How much more global warming and sea level rise?

The authors of this Science article use two different climate models—Parallel Climate Model (PCM) and Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3)—in order to predict the degree of global warming and sea level rise after the stabilization of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the year 2000. The study found that even if concentrations stabilized, there is a commitment to further global warming and sea level rise. Though both temperature and sea level rise are predicted to increase even after stabilization of GHGs, the models predict temperature to level off 100 years after stabilization while sea level is predicted to rise proportionately much higher compared to temperature. According to the models, after stabilization of GHGs in the year 2000, we are committed to further global warming of about another half degree while the commitment to sea level rise is an astounding additional 320% rise due to thermal expansion.

Meehl, et al., How Much More Global Warming and Sea Level Rise, Science Magazine, 307 (2005). pp. 1769-1772.

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